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So, at the halfway mark of this historic mission, the Modi government did not even have a plan on paper on how the farmers’ income was going to be doubled. The only major step that the BJP government took then, following its defeat in assembly elections, was something the DFIC had not recommended: hand out of Rs 6,000 a year to every farm family. The government had no time to consider the report. By the time the report arrived, two and a half years had passed and India was already in election mode. The 14-volume report is undoubtedly a comprehensive document on agriculture policies. What, then, should be the policies to achieve this unprecedented growth? It took the DFIC another year to submit its substantive report in September 2018. We were already one and a half years into a six-year mission by the time its starting point and the target were clearly identified.Īlso read: Of the three farm laws, Essential Commodities Act 2020 most business friendly This would require farm income to grow at an annual rate of 10.4 per cent in real terms - something Indian farmers had never experienced before. Doubling of farm income by 2022 would mean annual family income of Rs 1,72,694 at the prices of 2015-16 (doubling of farm income, but not that of non-farm income of the farmer household), or about Rs 2.5 lakh at the expected prices in 2022. Mind you, this income included earning from non-farm activities like service, business or dairy. That works out to about Rs 8,000 per month for a family of five or more.
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It estimated the annual income of a farm family in 2015-16 at Rs 96,703. The Committee had to extrapolate from an old survey carried out by the National Sample Survey in 2011-12, as there was no other reliable source of data to benchmark the starting point. The Doubling of Farmers’ Income Committee (DFIC), headed by a sensible and knowledgeable civil servant, presented the basic arithmetic of doubling the income in August 2017. So, what would it amount to in rupee terms? Well, the government appointed a committee, six weeks after making the announcement to the country, to find this out. It took the government a few months to answer an elementary arithmetic question: was the calculation going to happen at constant price or current price? In other words, was the target of doubling going to discount inflation? Thankfully, the government finally acknowledged that the target was to double the real income of the farmers, controlling for inflation, and not just their nominal income. Finally, you would expect that regular monitoring and review of the farmers’ income follows such a major declaration.Īs soon as Finance Minister Arun Jaitley repeated the PM’s announcement in his budget speech, questions were asked about what was the farmers’ income at that time and what it would take to double it. You hope that the government would have at least a rough roadmap of policies that help achieve that target. It must have done some basic arithmetic on what it would take to double that income within six years.
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Presumably, the government would know, first of all, what the farmers’ income was in 2016. So, you would imagine that some homework had gone into such a major declaration. This was not one of the manifesto promises of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Prime Minister Narendra Modi had made this announcement at Bareilly on 28 February 2016, a day before the Union Budget. Weird logic? Well, you have not followed the story of the mirage called DFI - Doubling of Farmers’ Income.Īlso read: Why 3 new FCI foodgrain procurement orders have triggered anger in Punjab Now the Modi government’s top expert on agriculture admits that the target may not be realised, not because it was unrealistic to begin with, nor because of any failure on the part of this government, but because of non-adoption of three laws that were introduced in course of the fifth year that have been stalled for the last three months. The deadline for meeting this target is 2022. The grand mission of Doubling Farmers’ Income was announced in February 2016. This is what the PTI’s copy of Chand’s interview reads: “I will say that if these three farm laws are not adopted immediately, then I don’t see that goal (of doubling farmers’ income by 2022) getting fulfilled.” Rather, the truth tumbled out in the course of a casual and disingenuous plea for the three farm laws. You don’t expect that from functionaries in the Narendra Modi government. Ramesh Chand, Member (Agriculture) of the Niti Aayog. Not by any critic of the government, but by Dr. Finally, the bluff of Doubling Farmers’ Income has been called.